{"id":9232,"date":"2018-07-09T09:36:43","date_gmt":"2018-07-09T06:36:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/palthink.org\/en\/?p=9232"},"modified":"2018-07-09T12:09:52","modified_gmt":"2018-07-09T09:09:52","slug":"three-scenarios-that-could-shape-the-gaza-strips-uncertain-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/palthink.org\/en\/2018\/07\/9232\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Scenarios that Could Shape the Gaza Strip\u2019s Uncertain Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

@<\/strong>\"https:\/\/www.fairobserver.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/fairobserver-logo.png\"By Omar Shaban <\/a> and Manuel Langendorf<\/a> <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

While the world is paying more attention to Gaza, the intra-Palestinian divide is worsening the humanitarian crisis in the Strip.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Two major developments that recently took place in the Gaza Strip are shaping the current situation and future of the coastal enclave. The first development was the attack on the convoy of Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Ramallah on March 13, 2018. The second one is the Great March of Return, which started on March 30, and the violence<\/a> that followed the protests. The first has put the reconciliation between the main Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, on hold, whereas the second has disrupted the fragile calm that has existed between Hamas and Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n

The mass protests that took place for several weeks at the Gaza border with Israel succeeded in bringing the humanitarian crises<\/a> in the coastal enclave to the attention of the international media. It reminded the world, the European Union, the United States, Israel, and the Arab nations in particular, that the situation in Gaza is not stable despite the fact that it was long perceived as such.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the attack on the Palestinian prime minister has destroyed the little trust that was left between Hamas and Fatah, and even deepened the divide to a level of irreversibility. While the world is paying more attention to Gaza, the intra-Palestinian divide is worsening the humanitarian crisis for the Gazan population.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Palestinian Authority (PA) seeks to extend its control over the Gaza strip, having realized that its previous policy of neglecting Hamas has only led to the empowerment of the PA\u2019s rivals. Decisions to deduct the salaries of PA employees in Gaza and decrease the electricity supply granted Egypt and the United Arab Emirates an opportunity to maneuver.<\/span><\/p>\n

It also enabled the PA\u2019s major opponent, Mohammed Dahlan (the PA\u2019s former security chief in Gaza), to return to the table and work toward lifting the siege on the Gaza Strip and act on behalf of the Palestinian cause regionally and internationally. The PA fears the intervention of Hamas along with Dahlan to form an alternative leadership structure that replaces the PLO. There are also fears that Hamas might move independently<\/a> toward a political arrangement for the Gaza Strip without the Palestinian Authority, using as justification the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza after the PA\u2019s likely rejection of Washington\u2019s peace deal \u2014 the \u201cdeal of the century\u201d \u2014\u00a0on which the Trump administration has been working for months.<\/span><\/p>\n

Past measures have made it clear that the PA has established a link between mechanisms to alleviate the economic and humanitarian situation and strengthen its status in the Gaza Strip \u2014 its first priority. This includes the full presence of its institutions and security forces in Gaza. As part of this, the PA decided to impose punitive measures<\/a> that directly aim to push the economic situation to the verge of collapse. The move to cut the wages of civil servants in Gaza since March 2018 is aimed at triggering an uprising against the Hamas government in Gaza, which could lead to a military escalation between Israel and Hamas.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Status Quo<\/span><\/h4>\n

Hamas seeks to rid itself of the responsibility for the economic crisis in the Gaza Strip, as well as the moral responsibility for the problems the Gazan population currently faces. The group has agreed to hand over the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Unity Government in return for a lifting of sanctions to alleviate the effects of the Israeli blockade. This way Hamas could increase its chances at the next elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hamas has used the Great March of Return protests<\/a> \u2014 in which Hamas members have participated \u2014 to add more pressure on the Israeli side. It has viewed the protests as a way to enhance its own chances of survival and an opportunity to attract more attention to the situation in Gaza.<\/span><\/p>\n

Israel continues to see the future of the Gaza Strip as connected to the Sinai Peninsula. There have been several proposals by Israeli officials that Gaza should be annexed to the Sinai<\/a>. Israel\u2019s approach toward Hamas has changed from viewing it as a terrorist organization that has to be violently dismantled to seeing it as a hostile entity that must be deterred in order to preserve the status quo. The Israeli government also sees Hamas as a useful tool to spur Palestinian division without reaching the point of total collapse of the regime in the Gaza Strip. In addition, Israel appears satisfied with a strategy of containing Gaza from the outside.<\/span><\/p>\n

Keeping the status quo remains a viable option for Israel, since pressure will push the parties to seek solutions to the disastrous humanitarian situation. This could, however, end in political solutions that will lead to the isolation of the Gaza Strip and its separation from the Palestinian state project and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if there is no opposition to the plan by Arab states and international actors.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the current situation, Israel is pursuing a strategy aimed at harming Hamas\u2019 military capabilities in Gaza, inciting the Gazan population and reducing the movement\u2019s ability to gain a regional footprint that could improve its military capability.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Gaza Strip occupies a central position in the US peace plan, which Jason Greenblatt, President Donald Trump\u2019s Middle East peace envoy, and his team have yet to present. There are reports<\/a> that Greenblatt will consider Gaza as a humanitarian issue that should be excluded from any political process.<\/span><\/p>\n

The plan will reportedly propose a transitional solution, meaning the establishment of a Palestinian state in half of \u200b\u200bthe West Bank, the entire Gaza Strip and some of Jerusalem\u2019s neighborhoods and villages, with the Old City and the surrounding areas within so-called East Jerusalem. What is more, the plan foresees establishing a \u201cnew city for the Palestinians,\u201d a Palestinian corridor to the al-Aqsa Mosque and providing a humanitarian solution for Palestinian refugees while dissolving the United National Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) within a specified period of time. Accordingly, borders, settlements and security will remain under Israeli control but will be negotiated after the establishment of a Palestinian state that will be recognized by the US, Israel and the international community.<\/span><\/p>\n

Based on this, there are several scenarios for the future of the Gaza Strip.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scenario 1<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

Despite persistent tensions, a scenario in which the PA and Hamas coexist cannot be completely dismissed. Reconciliation can be achieved, because Hamas does not have any other options. This is mainly due to the fact that the Gaza Strip is suffering from intolerable humanitarian conditions as a result of the sanctions imposed by the PA and the Israeli blockade. The Hamas government may prefer to implement the reconciliation process so it can gain the support of the population and avoid being perceived as rejecting or obstructing reconciliation that could bring humanitarian relief. Hamas is exerting only limited efforts to move the process forward, but enough to achieve progress in some areas, such as education, agriculture and health.<\/span><\/p>\n

The PA, meanwhile, is concerned about a scenario in which the Gaza Strip would be separated from the Palestinian cause or would become part of a scenario in which Hamas allies with Dahlan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Both the PA and Hamas share a genuine interest in directing global attention toward the Palestinian issue and move Israeli actions against Palestinians to the top of the regional and international agenda. The latest American decisions aim at undermining the issue and pressuring Palestinians to accept solutions in favor of Israel\u2019s vision. Despite their differences, the PA and Hamas are united in rejecting those decisions. A prerequisite for overcoming the crisis and effectively countering Israel\u2019s occupation is the unity between both sides when it comes to programs, strategy and institutions.<\/span><\/p>\n